Prediction

While John McCain will mostly rise above it, I predict the rest of the GOP machine will go into overdrive with variations on the following theme between now and November:

Barack Obama's name is Muslimy sounding and you know what that means.

Points will include:

• Obama only denounced Farrakhan... he did not reject him.
• Obama does not sufficiently love Jews (see Farrakhan point above).
• Obama does not sufficiently love Israel (see Farrakhan point above).
• Since Obama does not sufficiently love Jews or Israel, he is a racist. Or a fascist. Or a communist. Or a Muslimist. Or some other ist.
  
• Obama's middle name is Hussein, like "Saddam Hussein". Get it? Get it????
• Obama is black but that's ok because the GOP is very enlightened these days. But he does seem a little Muslimish around the nose and eyes, maybe... and the chin. You can definitely see it in the chin.
  

Ruh Roh

Caution: Right wing heads may explode due to crumbling narrative.

From TPM:

Late last week, one of the politicals at the Bush Pentagon, spokesman Bryan Whitman tried to stick his thumb into the ongoing presidential campaign by publicly doubting the veracity of the anecdote Sen. Obama used about the Army Captain in Afghanistan in last weeks Democratic debate. "I find that account pretty hard to imagine," he told reporters after the debate.

Today Gen. George Casey, Chief of Staff of the Army, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee with a very different take on the story.

From the AP ...

"Gen. George Casey, the Army's chief of staff, said Tuesday he has no reason to doubt Barack Obama's recent account by an Army captain that a rifle platoon in Afghanistan didn't have enough soldiers or weapons.

But he questioned the assertion that the shortages prevented the troops from doing their job.

Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Casey said the incident would have occurred in 2003 and 2004 following the Iraq invasion. He said he remembers it as a "difficult time" trying to rush armor and other equipment to the troops."

Around The Intertubes

Flu blogging!

• What do you make of the big Florida power outage today? Does that seem as accidental as four undersea cables getting cut in one week?

• The Democrats are having yet another debate tonight (their 24th?). *yawn *zzzzzz
  

• The entire right half of the blogosphere blasted off and went into orbit around Instapundit's head after hearing Obama's Army Captain anecdote the other day. I've read about this in various places but I thought John Cole's post (with bloggy links) was most entertaining. This write-up from David Botti also sets the record straight on a few of the right wing talking points, specifically:

"Carter also pointed out this post on the National Review Online which took issue with the idea that captains were commanding rifle platoons; a job normally reserved for lieutenants. At one point I had a captain commanding my rifle platoon; so, that takes care of that, fact-check. Particularly in the Marine Corps Reserves, where officers must complete a period of active duty service before switching to reserve duty, you find hardly any Lieutenants. The result is that higher ranks are sometimes taking up lower billeted job positions."

• The 60 Minutes segment on Don Siegelman was pretty interesting. Could Karl Rove possibly be a little more disgusting? He is a boil on this ass of this nation.
  

• The Iraq/Kurdistan/Turkey love triangle is starting to get heated. As an aside, I can't help but romanticize the peshmerga freedom fighters a little bit. "Peshmerga", which means, literally, "those who face death". As opposed to "American", which means "those who give up their freedoms out of fear." Yes, I'm still pissed about FISA. And the Patriot Act. And telco immunity. What a bunch of pussies we are.
  

• Speaking of Iraq, this was an interesting find by Sully. I continue to think that those who latch on to the surge results as an indication of victory are seriously deluded. Only by the most extreme goal-post maneuvering will we be declaring victory in Iraq any time soon. On the other hand, that might actually be our smartest exit strategy -- reset the objectives to something easy we've already met and then get the hell out of there before they suck us dry.
  

Is It Just The Fever?

As a regular Rock of Love viewer, I've been struggling to put my finger on who exactly it is that Daisy reminds me of. Tonight it hit me... it's Janice from the Muppets!

The "I'm Too Weak To Get Out Of Bed" Diet

I can summarize the experience of this week in 11 words: I will never again say flu shots are for old people.

If it weren't for the kindness of family members dropping by the bedroom with tea and toast I would probably starve to death. On the other hand, they are depriving me of the surest way to a Nicole Kidman stick figure physique (I've already achieved the pasty white complexion).

Stoopid Libruls Of Amerika

UPDATE: Jeff looked at the title of this post and said, "You spelled 'of' wrong." LOL

Under The Weather

Having the flu sucks. And by "sucks" I mean totally freakin' blows. And getting sick while traveling and then missing the last flight home really sucks, too, especially when you're standing at the gate watching your luggage leave without you.

I'm just sayin'.

Hello From Denver!

Flew in last night to... a snow shower, of course. After working all weekend (does that not suck profusely?), the mindlessness of modern travel was almost relaxing.

As for Denver, I probably won't get to see much of it since I'm flying out tomorrow night but the snow-capped mountains sure do make a beautiful backdrop.

Agreement

Wow... Michael Bloomberg and I are in agreement!

Mental Note

When speaking Thai, the H after a P or T is silent.

With this in mind, the Phuket Paradise Cocktail is pronounced "pooket paradise". If you absent mindedly translate the ph into "f", the waitress will giggle and the people at neighboring tables will stare at you.

From Aunt T

Aunt T posted this in the comments for Mom but I thought it was pretty cool so I'm posting it for everyone -- free movies and documentaries at www.moviesfoundonline.com.

In particular, Aunt T referenced:

Sicko
Bowling for Columbine

Outrage In Context

I was going to do a big outrage post on Thursday night regarding this week's Bush/GOP actions (which are, in fact, pretty damn outrageous) but the massacre at NIU made FISA seem less important that day. In the end I just didn't have the heart to write about either.

My kids -- Kaitlyn, in particular... the one who most seems to appreciate structure -- were pretty upset about the surprising and seemingly random nature of the violence and about it hitting so close to home. We had a long discussion in which I tried to explain the concept of probability and why they shouldn't be overly afraid or overreact or change how they go about their lives.

In the end it's another powerful reminder that we'll never be 100% safe in this life, that we can't protect our kids from every bad outcome, that we can't pro-actively identify everyone who wishes to do us harm, and that the best we can do is trust that our foundation is solid and that the odds are in our favor.

And that's really the context for my outrage over warrantless wiretapping.

My fellow citizens should be ashamed of themselves for allowing their fear to excuse BushCo's disregard for the constitution, breaking of the law, and attempt to spin the protesters as being weak on terrorism. Those knock-kneed cowards who would excuse pissing on the constitution at the first sign of danger, THOSE are the weak ones. At any rate, I'm pretty sure that's not what all those soldiers who died for this country from the revolution through the cold war had in mind when they made their sacrifice.

Shunnnnnn The Non-believers... Shuuuunnnnnah

Clearly Obama has been reading my blog (he probably feels beholden to the primary vote I cast in his favor).

I love the idea of $60 billion in infrastructure spending... it is what we here at Think, Dammit! call "investment spending" with a big fat local return. A nice, productive kind of economic stimulation. Plus we need it, desperately. Has anyone wondered why we haven't had a substantial build out of the highway system in decades? Why hasn't anyone insisted that infrastructure keep up with the number of cars on the roads? It's bizarro.

I also love the idea of "green collar jobs" and green stimulation spending although I'm a little less clear on how that would work. I am anxious to hear more about this. Green energy has a chance to become the next boom... not in terms of bubbles (although, *sigh, that will likely happen), but in terms of driving real economic growth (like the tech boom). Plus it has other return potential... like, oh, energy independence and wrecking less destruction on the planet.

Little things.

Tax cuts and rebates to stimulate an increase in consumer spending (i.e. more cheap imports) have their benefits but you can't make a steady diet of it and it's not the kind of economic policy we need right now. It's time for the government to invest in this country's future.

Happy Valentines Day

Love each other.

In Which I'm A Great Big Copy Cat

The IndyMac shareholder letter posted by Calculated Risk is priceless. I feel compelled to cut and paste and quibble with the CEO's insistence that home lenders were not "greedy and stupid."

Who is to blame for the mortgage industry's financial losses and also the record number of Americans losing their homes?

All home lenders, including Indymac, were a part of the problem, and, as Indymac's CEO, I take full responsibility for the mistakes that we made. However, objective reviewers of this mortgage crisis understand that home lenders and mortgage brokers were not the only ones responsible. Systemic problems in our secondary mortgage markets and credit markets, and our government's over-stimulation of the housing market via monetary and tax policies (the capital gains tax break on home sales encouraged speculation), were all major factors that contributed to the problem. Indymac and most home lenders were not "greedy and stupid". Most of us believed that innovative home lending served a legitimate economic and social purpose, allowing many US consumers to be able to achieve the American dream of homeownership ... and we still do.

Homeownership is the main way we Americans accumulate wealth, and, in fact, a recent Federal Reserve Bank study shows that homeowners on average have 46 times the personal wealth of renters. As innovative home lending and loan products became more widespread, the result was more people succeeding (in homeownership) and more people failing (losing their home) than ever before. But everyone, including both the government and consumer advocate groups who encouraged this lending via enforcement of CRA lending requirements, also bought into the concept that, if lenders and investors could properly price this increased risk, the higher number of failures was worth the social and economic goals of expanded homeownership. And it worked for many years; the homeownership rate, which had not moved in several decades, expanded from 64% to 69% from 1994 to 2006, allowing 4 million additional Americans the opportunity to have the American dream and build wealth.

However, in retrospect, like many innovations (e.g., the Internet, railroads, etc.), innovative home lending went too far. The housing bubble, caused primarily by the low interest rates for ARM mortgages fostered by the Fed's accommodative monetary policy and even lower rates for fixed/long-term mortgages due largely to tremendous global liquidity, combined with strong demand by institutional investors for assets with higher yields, resulted in a "systemic" underestimation of credit risk. This systemic underestimation of credit risk was not just for mortgages but for many forms of credit. By way of example, Indymac (and many other major financial institutions) has for years used one of the major credit rating agencies' models to assess and price credit risk on home loans. This model estimates expected lifetime losses on a loan level basis, and we closely monitor these average estimated lifetime losses for all of our loan production (that can be evaluated) on an ongoing basis. This particular rating agency revised its model in November 2007 (from version 6.0 to 6.1). Applying version 6.0 to our Q4-06 production (the version in place at that time) indicated an average expected lifetime loss rate of 0.88%, which we felt was a reasonable level of expected losses at which we could properly and adequately price the loans. However, now applying the updated version 6.1 to this same Q4-06 pool of loans results in an average expected lifetime loss rate of 1.88%, a 114% increase in expected losses in one year. This clearly indicates the extent to which the systemic underestimation of credit risk took place in the mortgage markets. As we began to realize this, we tightened our guidelines throughout the last year, with the result that our average expected lifetime loss rate for Q4-07 declined to 0.45% based on version 6.1, a 76% reduction in credit risk as compared to Q4-06, boding well for the future credit quality and related credit provisions/costs of our new business model.

Why didn't mortgage lenders see that things were going too far?

Lenders didn't see that things were going too far, partly because we were too close to it, but mostly because objective evidence of this credit risk did not show up in our delinquencies and financial performance until it was too late to prevent significant losses. And there were many events along the way that confirmed for those of us who believed that innovative home lending was possibly a paradigm shift (similar to widespread ownership of stocks by consumers) and definitely a legitimate marketplace: major financial institutions were offering these products and spending billions to purchase companies who specialized in these products; Wall Street firms and broker/dealers of major banks were underwriting our and others' transactions and also spending billions as recently as 2006 to buy non-GSE lenders in order to vertically integrate their home lending and securitization activities; major mortgage and bond insurers were insuring individual mortgages and pools of mortgages or bonds created from these mortgages; major credit rating agencies were providing strong ratings on our and others' transactions; and major investors around the world were purchasing these mortgage-backed bonds and even CDOs backed by these bonds (something we home lenders had no involvement in or awareness of). Very few in the private sector or in government predicted that the bursting of the housing bubble would be so severe and would result in the current wave of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses and the eventual collapse of the non-GSE secondary market ... even for high credit quality, full-documentation, jumbo home loans.

It is also important to understand that the rapid rise in housing prices is one of the key culprits in this current housing and mortgage crisis. In modern times, housing prices have declined in certain regions of the country but never on a nationwide basis. As a result of this fact and the important social and economic benefits that are clearly derived from homeownership, the government (first through FHA/VA programs and then through the GSEs) encouraged a USA mortgage market built upon very high leverage, with LTV ratios nearing 100% for first-time homebuyer programs. However, as home prices decline, either regionally or nationally, the leverage in a home loan, combined with the leverage of a financial institution or securitization structure, can result in significant losses for financial institutions, investors and consumers. Add to this mix a housing market that has not had a single regional market decline in over 15 years and, in fact, had a huge boom in prices from 2003 to 2006, and you can begin to understand how home lending was impacted. Automated risk-based models, on which the entire market relied, replaced portions of traditional underwriting and credit evaluation, and only in retrospect is it now clear that these models did not perform as predicted during a period of severe economic stress. As events unfolded, this proved to be particularly the case with respect to programs such as piggyback loans and high LTV cash-out refinance transactions, including home equity and second mortgages.

Let's be honest... if big biz thought there was big money to be made by jumping in a car and driving over a cliff, that is exactly what big biz would do. That's why we have checks and balances in the form of monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policy. Removing those check and balances to "free up the markets" is stupid. History has proven that x 10. But do we learn? Nooooooooooo... when there's big money involved we just rev up those engines and drive.

The Liberal Pragmatist

This is kind of an interesting take on Obama. I'm digging it.

The O Factor

I've been watching too much TV punditry. Here's my reflexive, nasty rant for the day:

Will the Republicans who continue to drone on about how Obama lacks substance just please shut the fuck up? You know damn well you're the same Republicans who waved flip flops in the air and wore purple heart shaped band-aids and talked incessantly about Nascar and John Edwards' haircut in an effort to remove all substance from the 2004 election. You're the same Republicans who slimed Gore about the internet and Love Story and for being boring in 2000. And now you're concerned about substance... really? Really???

I wish like hell that some of you -- any of you -- had been so insistent on substance when your guy was winning the national popularity contest. Surely we'd have ended up with someone -- anyone -- other than the retarded motherfucker we've had to endure in office for the past seven years. In truth, both Al Gore and John Kerry were smarter and more experienced than Bush the Lesser. In truth, your guy won because the buffoons who voted for him thought he'd be more fun to have a beer with. So please... give it a rest. Ya'll wouldn't know substance if it came up and bit you in the ass.

But here is someone who has it, that natural charisma, and knows how to use it. He may be as smart as Kerry and Gore but he's not going to fall into the wonk trap... too much intellectual muscle flexing and half of the country (I think we know which half, don't we?) will call him snooty, arrogant, elite, and out of touch. Like he's falling for that shit? Mmmyeah... I don't think so. Let him limit his policy pontification to white papers and debate venues, where the people who actually care about such things can find them. Everyone else can just sit back and soak up the O Factor.

I'm loving every minute of it.

P.S. Jealous a little?

Barack Obama didn't just beat Hillary in Virginia. He didn't just get more votes than John McCain. In "red" Virginia, Obama got 142,000 more votes than all the Republicans put together. And that was with Hillary Clinton taking 100,000 more votes than John McCain.

He kicked butt, took names, and did it with both hands tied behind his back.

Oh, and in Maryland, with 40% of the vote in, Hillary is beating all Republicans put together while losing by 27%. You could probably limit Democrats to only left-handed voters, or red-haired voters, or left-handed red-haired voters whose names start with 'Q,' and the Republicans would still be in trouble.

This And That

• Kirsten is going with friends to see Obama speak tonight in Madison. What a time to come of age politically... it's a very, very exciting election year for these youngsters. My first election was Dukakis and Bush Sr. LAME.

• Speaking of Obama... win, baby, win!

• I wonder if all of those Republicans who ranted about the Democrat's treatment of Joe Lieberman are McCain supporters.

• For Mom: The Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006 (Obama/Coburn). Pretty cool, no? This had huge bi-partisan support in the blogosphere, especially when the secret holds went on. Dramz!

• The Republican protest vote for Huckleberry Huckabee is fascinating. I almost hope he wins.
  

The Rules

The rules are the rules BUT I do hope the super delegates will be respectful regarding the will of the voters.

And then, when this is over, we need to change the rules.

Crivitz Memories

Welcome, Latinos!

I guess this makes my social security look like a safer bet.

Great Night

KK and I had a great night at Mom's... Brendan made spaghetti, we chatted, we drank Peroni, Mom tolerated by morbid thoughts, Obama took Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, and the US Virgin Islands, KK cracked us up with her take on politics, and I broke a really great healthy diet to try an empanada from Taco Bell on the way home (KK's idea).

Mom and Brend, you're THE BEST!!! xoxoxoxo

Did not do my tattoo yet, though... I know what I want but I can't seem to commit to a location. Back, ankle, hip, shoulder???? Gah!!

Pointless Thoughts

I was reading this article on Prez/Congress approval ratings (via Drudge) and I had a few pointless thoughts.

• The article confirms what we already know... there's still a sizable segment within the GOP for whom Bush remains somewhat of a god. He of prescription drug benefits, Harriet Miers, and immigrant amnesty proposals. Are these the same people who hate John McCain for his non-conservatism?

• If the lowest approval rating for any president ever was Truman in 1952 during the Korean war with 23%, does that mean the Greatest Generation was unpatriotic?

Sweets And Joy And Joyness

My son loves this video and can mimic it with near perfect voice inflection. He makes me laugh every time.

It's the most stupid thing I've ever seen and it's got 19 million hits on Youtube.

Charlieeeeeeee... Chaaaaaaarlieeeee... we're going on an adventuuuuuure, Charlieeee!

Coffee Talk

While the spoiled conservative pundit class cries and moans and wails over their fate with John McCain, there seems to be nary a mention of how they got to this point. I mean, how could voters not be flocking to Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee?

Hmmm... where have all of those supportive voters gone?

Things That Blow My Mind

I'm all for catching serial killers but doesn't this seem kind of unconstitutional?

Police officers in Daytona Beach are swabbing the mouths of persons of interests during traffic stops with special DNA kits in the hunt for an elusive serial killer, sources close to the investigation told Local 6.

[...]

"Genetically, we know who he is," Chitwood said. "We have DNA evidence from the murder scenes -- so, we got that. That is never going to go away. And, sooner or later, we will match the DNA to the physical person and bring closure to everything that is going on."Agents are using the DNA kits to collect as much DNA as possible during traffic stops and special operations in hopes on making a match."

The 4th Amendment is getting a little harder to read with BushCo constantly pissing on it but this is what it says:

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

It used to be important. Now it's just inconvenient.

The Occasional Bachelorette

Jeff and Ryan are leaving tonight for the annual "guys and kids" ice fishing trip in the UP and Kirsten is back to Madison today after a few days of visiting.

That leaves me and Kait. But -- since one of us has a busy social life (hint: it's not me) -- I have a feeling I'll be enjoying a lot of quality quiet time this weekend.

Fine with me!

I'm taking Friday off for the spa day I promised myself when I worked through the holidays. I have a few gift certs I've saved up that I'll be redeeming for a 90 minute therapeutic massage, a 90 minute fancy pantsy facial, a nourishing back treatment (to get ready for my tattoo!), and a hair cut and style. Doesn't that sound like a very glam way to survive all of this crazy snow?

And then there's a backlog of chick flicks that need watching, an office that needs cleaning, and exercise equipment that needs exercising. And there's a back that needs tattooing... I admit I'm a little nervous about that one.

Best News Of The Day

Here it is:

For grand totals, vastly more Democrats than Republicans voted yesterday;

Democratic votes for Clinton and Obama: 14,622,822 (63.6%)
Republican votes for McCain, Romney and Huckabee: 8,370,022 (36.4%)

Put another way, the Clinton/Obama race drew 76% more voters than the McCain/Romney/Huckabee race.

Republican policies have soured this country on Republicanism and now the giant political pendulum swings properly, finally, left. Even the leading GOP candidate, John McCain, is reasonably moderate. With a giant FUCK YOU to the neocons and the religicons, it's as if the whole of America is anxious to step out of the Dark Ages and enter the Age of Enlightenment.

I couldn't be happier. I hope John McCain pisses all over James Dobson and Rush Limboob and Sean Hannity from here to November.

McCain: 43.1% (3,611,459)
Romney: 35.4% (2,961,834)
Huckabee: 21.5% (1,796,729)

The Morning After

Very exciting night.

Obama took 13 states to Hillary's 8. Considering that Hillary has an operational machine that's been in place for 20 years and Obama has been in it for a year, I have to say it's been a pretty damn impressive contest.

It's kind of cool that this race will go to the bloody end, with the late primary states -- who almost never see a race that isn't decided by the time it gets to them -- playing a deciding role. The more people are invested in the race, the more they will expect/demand great things from the winner. It's far easier to sit cynically by the sideline when you haven't participated in the process.

On a personal note, I am a bit bummed that Obama didn't take California (for the delegate booty) but I'm staying cautiously optimistic. Hopefully he'll keep his good mojo going and Texas and Ohio won't fall for Hillary in the same way that Michigan fell for the shamelessly pandering "I will save your jobs!" Romney.

Hmmmm...

Four undersea cables cut in one week. Doesn't that seem like a strange coincidence?

Gonna Be A Late Night

I ventured out in a snow storm to vote for Obama tonight and he won my state. Coincidence? I think not. He totally owes me.

Off to bedfordshire to watch the rest of the primary coverage there. Not sure if I'll stay awake long enough to see what happens with California but I have an idea they'll carry on just fine without me.

Dobson's Anti-McCain Crusade

What James Dobson says (via Sully):

"I'm deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, who voted for embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings, who opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, and who has little regard for freedom of speech, who organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language."

See... I happen to agree with McCain on all of those things (the freedom of speech comment refers to the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform legislation). I kind of admire McCain... if he wasn't a conservative and if there wasn't a bunch of stuff I disagreed with him on, I might actually vote for him.

On the other hand, I don't care much for Romney, who dopes like Limboob and Hannity insist is the proper conservative candidate. The real Massachusetts Mitt, though, before his GOP makeover, would probably be closer to my world view on policy.

I continue not to get these people.

Blah Blah Blah

For as much as Obama and Clinton are very similar in their positions, there are some significant differences between McCain, Romney, and Huckleberry. And for as invested as I am in Obama, I do think the Republican race is much more interesting to watch because of what it says about the state of the GOP.

Bill Richardson was just on MSNBC and he's gone all Al Gore with a new beard. Trippy!

Super Duper Tuesday

Watching the results come in.

Normally I switch back and forth between Faux News, CNN, and MSNBC, but now that Faux has added Karl "Turdblossom" Rove I really can't stand to watch. I can handle Brit Hume's eternal sneer and Chris Wallace's eternal smirk, but Turdblossom's pink piggy face is just too much.

Now... how can these news outlets call any of these races with 3% of the precincts in? Crazy.

Super Duper Tuesday Predictions

No freakin' clue.

A former coworker from a neighboring Super Duper Tuesday state messaged me yesterday afternoon to ask who I'd be supporting today. She is a Dem, although a more serious and thoughtful one than I. She lives off the grid now, having invested some years ago in various alternative energy mechanisms for her home (her investment has already paid for itself in lower costs, she says).

She told me she is bouncing back and forth between Hillary and Obama, equally pleased with both of them but for slightly different reasons. Her 18 year old son is pushing her toward Obama.

This scenario seems ready to play itself out around the country... last minute decisions between the two Dem candidates with the youth pushing America toward Obama. Which way it'll go is anyone's guess.

The Republican race is also very tight. How on earth Mitt has managed to out-conservative McCain is a bit mind blowing for me. Do people really believe that? I guess we'll find out today.

Anywhoooooo, I know who I'm voting for... and that's about the outermost limit of my omniscience.

Don't Forget!

No matter who you favor... don't forget to clear some time to vote tomorrow. Both races are still pretty tight so you'll actually be helping to choose the 2008 national candidates.

As my 12th grade government teacher used to say, it's better to be a political process participant than a pathetic apathetic!!

Super Tuesday states:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho (Democratic Party Only)
Illinois
Kansas (Democratic Party Only)
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico (Democratic Party Only)
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah

Tombernet Sauvingon

Not a big Giants or Patriots fan but ding dang, ya'll... is it just my imagination or is Tom Petty aging like a fine wine?

Or at least how I imagine a fine wine would age.

Yowsa!

Iraq Forever!

Jeeez.

Every day, five U.S. soldiers try to kill themselves. Before the Iraq war began, that figure was less than one suicide attempt a day.

The dramatic increase is revealed in new U.S. Army figures, which show 2,100 soldiers tried to commit suicide in 2007.

I can't imagine why... surely an unending war with no clear victory plan, a backdoor draft whereby you're never released, and watching your marriage disintegrate while you slowly sink into financial ruin (especially for the called up reservists) must be so uplifting.

Oh, and about those stateside reservists who we're counting on in the event of an onshore terror attack... might be nice if we adequately trained them.

The Never Ending Party

This article has the best breakdown I've seen so far regarding what's on the table for the $150M (or $156M) economic stimulus package, as well as where some of the congressional contention is.

Some thoughts...

Does it really address any of the systemic problems in our economy? Which is to say, does it do anything to affect the fact that artificially low interest rates and deregulation that have created an over-investment in US assets? Or that over-investment in US assets has created hyper-inflated asset values that are relative to... nothing? Or that our consumption based economy is the weakest of all possible economic structures? Or that our financial institution -- from banks to brokers, from appraisers to securities packagers, from hedge funds to financial analysts, from actuaries to risk managers -- has become one big codependent, dysfunctional family?

I am thinking not. I am thinking that the stimulus package (and recent rate cuts, which strike me as trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it) addresses none of that. It is merely intended to keep the party going.

If the real purpose of the stimulus package is to bolster our financial institutions, is that smart? Do we really want to propose doubling of the current loan limits for Freddie Mac and Fannie May and FHA? Doesn't that seem like a horrible idea since it amounts to a federal bailout and leaves the taxpayers holding the bag for all of the garbage we already know is out there?

Besides the obvious taxpayer funded bailout, I hate to see these once worthy government programs -- a successful component in building the middle class that has carried this country for so long -- perverted in this manner. The original mission of Freddie and Fannie was to provide a government guarantee on modest mortgage loans for lower and middle class folks to whom banks --back in the day -- would otherwise not have bothered lending money. Modest loans. $750K does not, in my book, qualify as a modest loan. In some of the bubble markets this size of loan may be more common but why in the hell would we want to continue to support bubble prices? I am all for softening the landing but I am NOT for continuing the party. Which is why the recent rate cuts are pissing me off... it's like trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it. But I digress.

If the purpose of the stimulus package is truly to stimulate consumer spending, then the Dems have it right... money should be infused at the lowest levels of our economy in order to get the biggest dollar for dollar return. Whether or not people at this level "deserve" to participate is not really the point... the objective here is to stimulate the economy. But at best it's going to be a flash in the pan... a small delay of the pain we know is coming.

If the stimulus package is intended to spur business spending... well, I think we can safely say that's a bit of a long shot. Regardless of tax breaks, business is not going to spend unless they can project a positive return on investment.

Personally, I would much rather pay the price now for realigning our economy than to spend a lot of money trying to keep the party going. Soften up the landing a little, sure, but let's admit that the consumption-based economy we've been relying on is weak. I may be the only one who thinks this, though, since the general consensus seems to be that we can still spend our way to prosperity.

The one solid item I see in the the stimulus package is the reference to funneling money back into our infrastructure. Infrastructure, grossly ignored and underfunded over the past decade (as the states have been starved in a misguided attempt at Grover Norquistian 'tough love'), is critical to our national health. Not only did the post WWII focus on infrastructure enable commerce, it also pumped money directly back into local economies, which in turn spurred real economic growth. Now that our aging infrastructure is crumbling, this is the perfect time to give it some love. It's a total win-win.

Things I Like To See

From AP:

An estimated 8.3 million television viewers watched Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama debate Thursday night in California, more than double the audience for Republican candidates the night before.

The CNN audience for Clinton and Obama's debate, the first one-on-one contest for Democrats now that John Edwards has dropped out, was second only to the 9.4 million people who watched the Democrats on ABC Jan. 5, according to Nielsen Media Research.

CNN also televised a Republican debate Wednesday night, highlighted by contentious exchanges between John McCain and Mitt Romney, that was watched by 4 million viewers, Nielsen said.

The Democratic debate eclipsed, by far, any other political debate ever shown just on cable television. The previous high was the Democratic debate in South Carolina on Jan. 21, seen by 4.9 million people.

BREAKING: McCain Not Conservative

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Obama On...

Kid Oakland has done a very nice series on Obama's positions on Technology, Health Care, Immigration Reform, Foreign Policy, Iraq, and the 50 State Strategy. Also, see how he inspires young people to get involved, and today's Chicago.

Excellent work. I'm sure I could have done it myself if my brain wasn't getting mushy from all of the mercury I've been unknowingly ingesting via sushi.