Sunday, October 19, 2008


It's probably going to be rough seas for a long time but maybe -- just maybe -- we have staved off a systematic economic meltdown. I won't pretend I understand what Calculated Risk is monitoring with these indicators but they seem to be saying we're at least only circling the drain instead of diving through it.

  • The yield on 3 month treasuries: 0.79% up from up from 0.40% (BETTER)

  • The TED spread: 3.59 down from 4.11 yesterday (BETTER)

  • Activity in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). This is the Treasury program to raise cash for the Fed's liquidity initiatives. If this program slows down borrowing, I think that would be a good sign.

  • Here is a list of SFP sales. No announcement today have to wait for progress.

  • The A2P2 spread is 4.49 for Thrusday up from 4.4 for Wenesday. slightly worse.

  • Industry contacts. I'm tracking some financing deals there are being held up right now. If these deals complete that would be a good sign (I'll post something when this happens). No improvement yet.

    The two year swap spread from Bloomberg: 122.2 down from 138.38 BETTER

    I'll add a couple more indicators, but this is progress.

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