Monday, November 19, 2007

Petrodollar Research

The petrodollar concept popped up on my radar back in 2002-2003. Usually I read about it as it related to our interest in Iraq (oil)... and usually it was frantically referenced by someone arguing against the war. I dismissed it as interesting but irrelevant. (me=sheeple)

I have read virtually nothing in the mainstream media on petrodollars in any context since. Then, over the weekend, I read this about OPEC assessing the merits of abandoning the dollar:
In an embarrassing blunder at the meeting in Riyadh, ministers' microphones were not cut off during a key closed meeting, and Prince Al-Faisal was heard saying: "My feeling is that the mere mention that the Opec countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact that endangers the interests of the countries.
The idea of our enemies using our oil dependency to bring down our economy is something I'd written about just a few weeks ago. We're vulnerable. That the Wonder Twin assholes in Iran and Venezuela would be actively working on it doesn't surprise me either. What I suddenly wanted to know is, what kind of impact would the switch from petrodollar to petroeuro have on the US economy? I set off around the intertubes alookin' for a clue.

The most notable thing I found was this very thorough and inflammatory report about the petrodollar that foretells the collapse of the US dollar. I say thorough because the author provides a lot of context and a lot of facts. He also ties in a few ideas and conclusions I've reached separately and on my own (not in relation to each other or the petrodollar). In fact, as I read this report I found it absolutely uncanny that so many of the things that have been bothering me that I thought were unrelated may actually be related.

The reason I call the report inflammatory is because there are a few places where, in the absence of facts, the author does a little speculating. Normally I love extrapolating on facts to engage in a little speculation and theory creation. It's a hobby. But here I was just looking for the facts... I found his speculatory efforts a bit distracting.

I would love for someone else to read the report and discuss it with me. I'm not saying a shift to the petroeuro is inevitable but it gets more likely -- even in incremental phases -- as the dollar continues to weaken.

I don't know how credible the author is (you can judge that for yourself) but the concepts here are certainly provocative.


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