Sunday, April 08, 2007

Miracle

The pope and I actually agree on something... nothing good will come of invading Iraq. It must be an Easter miracle! Meanwhile...

Sadr has declared war on the American troops.

I suppose it was the logical response to Bush having declared war on the militias, which I suppose is the logical response to the militias having decided they have the right to do whatever they want in Iraq with impunity. But all of these logical responses are just deepening our involvement in a war that we don't have a hope of winning.

We can bomb the hell out of the Najaf and Fallujah but we're probably not going to do any better against the militias in the long run than Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Time will tell, I guess, but I predict we'll just end up with a lot of homeless civilians, a lot of civilian casualties, and a majority Shiite community that's highly sympathetic toward their own and generally enraged against America.

Who will be happy? The Sunni insurgents and the Sunni population in general, since the militias have been kidnapping, torturing, and executing them in relatively large numbers.

So now the US will be pitted against Iraq's insane al-Qaeda element, the fairly organized Sunni insurgency, and the passionate, motivated, and deeply-entrenched-in-everything Shiite militias.
On the bright side, maybe the Sunni will soon be too busy with guerrilla warfare with the Kurds to give us their full attention.

Hopefully we won't be rewarded for our troubles in Iraq like the Soviets were rewarded for their nine year adventure in Afghanistan... with economic ruin. Because isn't that really the lesson Bin Laden learned in the 80's? How to slowly bleed out your enemy by forcing him to engage in a war he can't politically back out of, and doing it on your turf and on your terms.

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