The Weakly Standard
Har! Get it?? :-)
I realize I can't match the brain power of neocon wonder twins Fred Kagel and Bill Kristol but there's something about their latest Iraq article that bugs me. They cite a few facts to refute strawman arguments about Iraq but their conclusions don't fit logically.
For starters, they claim that the capture/killing of members of the Madhi Army had the effect of "terrifying Sadr into fleeing to Iran." That doesn't make any sense to me. The Madhi Army hasn't disbanded... they are laying low. And that makes a world of sense to me -- why would they insist upon becoming the focus of the US right now when they can let the US focus on the Sunni insurgents instead? If the US can cripple the insurgency then there will be less work for the Madhi Army to do later on when they're ready to stake their claim. So what makes me think they're just laying low? Look at how fast they rebanded to carry out the Sunni reprisals this week -- with the full support of the Iraqi police.
Secondly, al-Qaeda in Iraq seems like a temporary problem. As I've said before, there is not really a compatible ideology between al-Qaeda and any group in Iraq. What they have at best is a relationship of convenience with the Sunni that is quickly becoming a waning tolerance. The recent clashes between the Anbar sheiks and al-Qaeda is probably because those al-Qaeda mother f*ers are crazy. Most certainly they're on a power trip and have overstepped. I maintain that there will be no place in Iraq for al-Qaeda after the civil war. They are opportunists looking for a stage and we've created a stage for them. We can't win against them because their organizational structure is decentralized... we kill one 'leader' and there are 50 others. We kill another leader and there are still 50 others. Every disaffected, suicidal, mentally defective person in the Middle East can now wander over to Iraq and become a finger of al-Qaeda. The only people who are going to be able to affect al-Qaeda are the Iraqi's and they aren't going to do that until 1) we're gone, and 2) they have settled their civil war. Al Qaeda can only exist in a chaotic Iraq.
The full surge (with all the troops in play for however long it can last) may quell the violence temporarily but, just like laying pretty vinyl flooring over rotting floorboards, it is only going to mask the underlying cultural issues. Which is, ironically, exactly what Saddam's iron rule did.
I realize I can't match the brain power of neocon wonder twins Fred Kagel and Bill Kristol but there's something about their latest Iraq article that bugs me. They cite a few facts to refute strawman arguments about Iraq but their conclusions don't fit logically.
For starters, they claim that the capture/killing of members of the Madhi Army had the effect of "terrifying Sadr into fleeing to Iran." That doesn't make any sense to me. The Madhi Army hasn't disbanded... they are laying low. And that makes a world of sense to me -- why would they insist upon becoming the focus of the US right now when they can let the US focus on the Sunni insurgents instead? If the US can cripple the insurgency then there will be less work for the Madhi Army to do later on when they're ready to stake their claim. So what makes me think they're just laying low? Look at how fast they rebanded to carry out the Sunni reprisals this week -- with the full support of the Iraqi police.
Secondly, al-Qaeda in Iraq seems like a temporary problem. As I've said before, there is not really a compatible ideology between al-Qaeda and any group in Iraq. What they have at best is a relationship of convenience with the Sunni that is quickly becoming a waning tolerance. The recent clashes between the Anbar sheiks and al-Qaeda is probably because those al-Qaeda mother f*ers are crazy. Most certainly they're on a power trip and have overstepped. I maintain that there will be no place in Iraq for al-Qaeda after the civil war. They are opportunists looking for a stage and we've created a stage for them. We can't win against them because their organizational structure is decentralized... we kill one 'leader' and there are 50 others. We kill another leader and there are still 50 others. Every disaffected, suicidal, mentally defective person in the Middle East can now wander over to Iraq and become a finger of al-Qaeda. The only people who are going to be able to affect al-Qaeda are the Iraqi's and they aren't going to do that until 1) we're gone, and 2) they have settled their civil war. Al Qaeda can only exist in a chaotic Iraq.
The full surge (with all the troops in play for however long it can last) may quell the violence temporarily but, just like laying pretty vinyl flooring over rotting floorboards, it is only going to mask the underlying cultural issues. Which is, ironically, exactly what Saddam's iron rule did.
posted by Logic101 at 3/29/2007 04:06:00 PM
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