Wednesday, October 11, 2006

DPRK Test Bombs

(Don't you wonder how long they had to scour the military looking for soldiers who would not tower over the miniature Kim Jong Il in this picture?)

America's bilateral diplomacy was flawed and it's six party talks have failed (spectacularly so, it seems). I must say that I never understood the much ballyhooed "brilliance" of Bush's Six Party talks since it doesn't seem very wise to leave OUR national security interests up to other countries to negotiate. Call me a control freak, I guess.

Diplomacy is a funny thing... very easy to do with your friends (where you need it least) and rather difficult to do with your enemies (where you need it most). It's a tool, not a weakness. Not only is our refusal to engage with those we dislike (N Korea, Syria, Iran, etc) childish and counter productive, it's also dangerous. To those who question how you engage in diplomacy with parties that can't be trusted: Strategically and pragmatically... as countries have been doing for a thousand years.

So what now?

This is actually one scenario where I would have liked to have seen military action since I believe the cash-strapped DPRK will offer the black market every nuke they produce. Wouldn't bilateral agreements have left room for a unilateral response? I think we've lost that option in the six party forum -- I highly doubt that our banker, China, will allow military action against their little buddy. And although China is trying to sound tough, I don't think they intend to support any meaningful trade sanctions, either. Since they are one of the DPRK's primary trade partners, everyone else's sanctions would then be more symbolic than effective.

Taking a military response out of the equation would leave us with three options: sanctions, diplomacy, or nothing. Sanctions are meaningless without China onboard. And now that the DPRK has its nukes we would be coming at diplomacy from a weakened position. Our objective would be the same as before -- containment -- but with nukes now on the table the stakes are much higher. The option of doing nothing is even worse still... it just ensures we'll be in an even weaker position at the next critical juncture.

I don't understand why the "America, Love It or Leave It" crowd isn't screaming about this a bit more. I find it very painful to see our great country this way... weakened by poor strategy in the Middle East and now Asia, too.

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